View Full Version : HBOS falling hard.. this could get nasty
Admiral Huddy
17-09-2008, 09:12
Dealers here are paniking.. there's no doubt this is going to have serious repercussions :
http://www.londonstockexchange.com/en-gb/pricesnews/prices/system/detailedprices.htm?sym=GB0030587504GBGBXSET1305875 0HBOS
Down 68 points since opening. :(
Must have been due to the S&P ageny rating drop
I have quite a few friends at HBOS HQ... and things are a bit unstable here too.
Same happened Monday and Tuesday too.
No doubt it's a very shaky time for anyone in banking but unlike Lehman, AIG, and the like, HBOS have liquidity to draw upon should they need. I doubt HBOS will get even close to failure any time soon unless there's something hiding in the closet that traders know about but the experts don't.
Admiral Huddy
17-09-2008, 09:19
Same happened Monday and Tuesday too.
No doubt it's a very shaky time for anyone in banking but unlike Lehman, AIG, and the like, HBOS have liquidity to draw upon should they need. I doubt HBOS will get even close to failure any time soon unless there's something hiding in the closet that traders know about but the experts don't.
The goverment would step in before the unthinkable should happen... Watches carefully..
Admiral Huddy
17-09-2008, 09:20
Down 94 : #brace#
What is the justification for the drop though? I'm watching the news in the background here and HBOS themselves seem to think that they're being targeted by short sellers with no financial reason. Similar to Black Wednesday.
Admiral Huddy
17-09-2008, 09:29
What is the justification for the drop though? I'm watching the news in the background here and HBOS themselves seem to think that they're being targeted by short sellers with no financial reason. Similar to Black Wednesday.
Too much lending and as a result a drop in rating. Makes trading harder. plus no faith in interbank lending and high LIBOR..
Talks of a merge with Lloyds is top headline on BBC (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7620483.stm) - I can't say I really understand any of it, would the drop be because of the merger talk?
At the moment quite a lot are making quick bucks through this. Trend for quite a few days is to fall hard, then recover a fair bit by the end of the day. I bet the day traders are making a fortune.
There does seem to be targetting going on, but who knows what is under the covers. I was thinking of you Huddy when Lehman bro's went down.
Admiral Huddy
17-09-2008, 09:33
Talks of a merge with Lloyds is top headline on BBC (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7620483.stm) - I can't say I really understand any of it, would the drop be because of the merger talk?
No the opoosiute.. a resue would help a recover.. which it has already..
Gone back back up to 146.. Someone would have made a nice killing this morning.
All my shares have recovered this morning which is good.
There does seem to be targetting going on, but who knows what is under the covers. I was thinking of you Huddy when Lehman bro's went down.
cheers mate.. I don't think the full affect has been felt yet.. We'll see over the forthcoming months..
Gone back back up to 146.. Someone would have made a nice killing this morning.
You're not kidding there, according the feed I'm looking at here HBOS shares are up over £2 a share, considering that at their lowest this morning they were apparently changing hands for 96p each some people are definitely looking to make a fair amount.
Admiral Huddy
17-09-2008, 09:44
haha bids are going in for 1.80.. Bloody missed out there!!
I speak too soon, unless something is going wrong with the feed HBOS has just plummeted to 108!? What can cause these kind of crazy fluctuations?
edit: must have been broken, they've changed a 72.3 drop to a 72.3 increase and quoting HBOS as 254, still crazy
Admiral Huddy
17-09-2008, 09:50
Not sure where you are looking... ??
I bought a load of B&B shares a few weeks back.. I'm hoping for a rescue package.. If the same thing happens, I'll make a killing.
I've bought 250 HBOS shares at 141.. let's see :)
Not sure where you are looking... ??
I bought a load of B&B shares a few weeks back.. I'm hoping for a rescue package.. If the same thing happens, I'll make a killing.
I've bought 250 HBOS shares at 141.. let's see :)
Don't tempt me ;) Seriously if this carries on I'll be having a punt as well.
Admiral Huddy
17-09-2008, 10:05
Buy if < £2.00.. Long term, if Lloyds take over these will be worth much more and nice healthy dividends in future..
Nice profit there. They're now showing at £2.00 (20min delayed)
Same old story....money makes money :p
Oh the joys of capitalism and the greed and short sighted knee jerk reactions it encourages. "Oh Gnoes, the bank is going through a dodgy spell.. sod the fact it'll recover, we must sell sell sell sell sell as we won't get so much dividends this year!" which just exasperates the situation no end.
Admiral Huddy
17-09-2008, 12:33
me buys :)
I bought a load of B&B shares a few weeks back..
B&B now downgraded also AFAIK
If there is a merger, I suspect it'll affect the call centres round here :( Iirc there's 1 HBOS call centre in Swansea, 1 Lloyds TSB and another nearby as well.
Just what the area needs if so, as there's already been all the job losses from XL going bust :(
Looks like the Government are preparing to bulldoze through the deal (bypassing the usual regulatory checks and balances) in the name of expediency and financial stability. Given the current turmoil that is entirely understandable and probably the correct approach - we really don't need another NR.
However, I do wonder if there are downsides to this and how much we might pay for this deal in the future.
However, I do wonder if there are downsides to this and how much we might pay for this deal in the future.
In the short term, jobs. In the long term, reduction of competition, that's not going to be a good thing for consumers.
Admiral Huddy
17-09-2008, 15:16
Government backing would also improve agency ratings which is something overseas bank have phased out. Including the bank I works for, which was owned by the state.
In the short term, jobs. In the long term, reduction of competition, that's not going to be a good thing for consumers.
But would we be any better off in the long term with the status quo? Why are HBOS (and the Government) so keen on this deal, especially given their recent £4bn rights issue? Is it purely a consequence of downgrades fuelled by speculation, or is there something else?
Just read this, rather revealing...
Why this sudden merger, I thought both banks were sound?
It looks like a rescue.
Industry experts have calculated that HBOS had to buy back £150bn of short term bonds - glorified IOUs - by June next year.
They would then need to re-sell them to raise fresh cash.
Where would HBOS get the cash? Who might buy its bits of paper again? All this uncertainty seems to have contributed to the HBOS share price collapsing.
And if a crisis of confidence grips the financial markets, it is all but impossible to shake off.
As the administrators to the now defunct US investment bank Lehman Brothers pointed out, if you are a bank and no-one will trade with you, you are dead.
I wonder how much Lloyds own business will pile on top of that £150bn. That's going to be mighty scary if this crisis drags on for another 6-9 months.
Pretty much all of our systems are down at the moment (email, trading platforms) and apparently my colleague heard people desperately trying to rinse their hands of anything AIG earlier. I'm hiding in our 'lab' in the basement!
Only thing I know about having to do with AIG is our works' travel insurance. I don't have any insurance from the high street so I'm safe there too.
Only thing I know about having to do with AIG is our works' travel insurance. I don't have any insurance from the high street so I'm safe there too.
I work for Rothschild ;)
I work for Rothschild ;)
RAM man eh?
All my accounts, insurances and credit card apart from car insurance and mortgage are with Halifax.
Personally I'm not concerned, as has been pointed out, the government CAN'T let HBOS fall.
RAM man eh?
Are you raking it in then Flump? What happened to the heads-up you were supposed to give me so I could buy at the right time? :D
Not that I even have a stock-broker I could just ring and buy shares through - how do you do that anyway?
My main worry is work, after seeing a well established place get shut down for no reason linked to the CC 300 people out of work in less than 5 weeks.
Glad I have just gone back to college for 2 years, everything should be sorted for when I leave.
Are you raking it in then Flump? What happened to the heads-up you were supposed to give me so I could buy at the right time? :D
Not that I even have a stock-broker I could just ring and buy shares through - how do you do that anyway?
I was looking into this kind of thing a couple of months ago, but with a move to Hawaii potentially on the books it was just one hassle I figured I could do without.
You need some kind of share trading account set up. There are numerous places on line that will allow you to buy and sell accounts, but charges change depending on how much business you do. MoneySupermarket.com (http://www.moneysupermarket.com/shares/CompareSharesForm.asp) has a good way to compare different accounts out there.
Be aware of making too much money though, or you'll fall afoul of Capital Gains Tax:
Share trading: use your capital gains allowance
There are a few simple ways to avoid paying too much tax on share trades. If you’re fortunate enough to make capital gains during the fiscal year (the current one runs from 6 April 2007 to 5 April 2008), consider taking advantage of capital-gains tax concessions. It means that the first £9,200 of profit on any disposal is tax-free. Each person gets one allowance per tax year and it works on a ‘use it or lose it’ basis. So consider cashing in some investments each year to ensure the allowance isn’t wasted, but bear in mind that you should never allow your investment decisions to be driven solely by tax considerations. Another vital point to remember is that losses can be carried forward and used in subsequent years, so keep a careful note of them. If in doubt, an accountant or broker can help, or phone the tax office on 0845 900 0444.
RAM man eh?
Desktop support!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7622180.stm
And the Lloyds/HBOS deal is done, that was bloody quick wasn't it. 232p per HBOS share, I should have bought some this morning, nice one to anyone who did :)
Blimey talk aobut lightning striking twice! The company I currently contract for is renting office space from HBOS. Guess who is closing a Cardiff office. So I may have a job but nowhere to go by next week lol.
What will all this mean to someone who owes a debt with Halifax?
Sod all - though you might find the letterhead changes in due course.
I've just bought more shares in HBOS. :\
Not sure where you are looking... ??
I bought a load of B&B shares a few weeks back.. I'm hoping for a rescue package.. If the same thing happens, I'll make a killing.
I've bought 250 HBOS shares at 141.. let's see :)
Looks like this has paid off matey :)
I am jealous.
Admiral Huddy
18-09-2008, 08:53
Looks like this has paid off matey :)
I am jealous.
I'm holding!
Divi payouts on Lloyds could be welcome :)
Desktop support!
Do you know a Mr Baptiste by any chance?
He's some kind of techie there too I believe...
Are you raking it in then Flump? What happened to the heads-up you were supposed to give me so I could buy at the right time? :D
Not that I even have a stock-broker I could just ring and buy shares through - how do you do that anyway?
I'm working for the SIVs at the moment, so no! It's so illiquid you can see cracks appearing in the pavement. The world has changed 3 days in a row now, no reason to think it's going to stop changing anytime soon. Although it's risky (the Fed with it's rescues etc is basically making the shareholders pay by wiping them out) a good day trade is probably the biggest short-term prize at the moment for the private investor. Mind you things are so volatile you could almost day trade a couple of spot FX at the moment...
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/09/regulatory-exem.html
Interesting view on the current disasters.
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/09/regulatory-exem.html
Interesting view on the current disasters.
Watch out for Basell 3 - Return of the balance sheet
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