US-style banking bailout? - Page 2

Matblack · 08-10-2008, 18:00

Now that's what you call a 'dead cat bounce', oh dear what a day!

MB

Mark · 08-10-2008, 18:19

I think it's now a choice between a prolonged recession and depression. You can be sure we'll be paying for this mess for a decade or two.

PS - WTF is a 'dead cat bounce'?

Matblack · 08-10-2008, 18:34

Quote:

One of the most vivid, if a bit indelicate, word pictures painted by the bears on oil comes from Raymond F. DeVoe Jr. at the investment firm of Legg Mason Wood Walker. DeVoe suggests the printing of a bumper sticker reading: “Beware the Dead Cat Bounce.” “This applies to stocks or commodities that have gone into free-fall descent and then rallied briefly,” he says. “If you threw a dead cat off a 50-story building, it might bounce when it hit the sidewalk. But don’t confuse that bounce with renewed life. It is still a dead cat.”

The phrase gradually caught on during the 1990s but became particularly common — for obvious reasons — after 2000 Its heyday may be passing.

That last part was obviously wishful thinking!

MB

Mark · 10-10-2008, 13:31

Thanks. They used the term on 'This Week' last night, and I knew what they were talking about.

I haven't heard significant use of the word 'crash' yet, but I don't think there's any other word that portrays the events accurately. FTSE 100 has lost 1000 points this week and counting.

Looking at the last two notable crashes, it took 20+ years to recover from 1929 and 2 to recover from 1987. Wonder how long it'll be this time.

Tak · 10-10-2008, 13:37

What actually needs to happen for things to start recovering?
I admit I don't really understand everything that has been going on or why things have gone this way even though I have been trying to.

Mark · 10-10-2008, 13:58

To start recovering, we first need to find the bottom. Right now we're still on the way down, and it could still be a long way down from here. I'd anticipate a minimum of 6-12 months before anyone even thinks about recovery.

There's going to be a retail bust-up after Christmas as a lot of retailers (big and small alike) are trading on the edge, and it's looking unlikely there will be much of a Christmas splurge. This could even include big names such as Woolworths, HMV and Currys. We also need the impact of all the recent collapses (and bail-outs) to work their way through the system.

Garp · 10-10-2008, 14:22

Mark Shuttleworth has an interesting view on this one:
http://www.markshuttleworth.com/archives/220

Matblack · 10-10-2008, 14:40

If you have cash and you're reasonably secure in your job there will be a few bargains to be had over the next few months, if you are looking to make some ready cash then I'd be thinking about drip feeding cash into the markets sooner rather than later. It will go back up its just a matter of time.

MB

Mark · 10-10-2008, 16:00

Them dead cats are back at it again.

8% down this morning, 5% a few hours ago, 7% now.

08-10-2008, 18:00	#11
Matblack Baby Bore Join Date: Jun 2006 Location: Svalbard Posts: 9,770	Now that's what you call a 'dead cat bounce', oh dear what a day! MB __________________ "we had roots that grew towards each other underground, and when all the pretty blossom had fallen from our branches we found that we were one tree and not two"

10-10-2008, 13:37	#15
Tak L'Oréal Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: Portsmouth Posts: 9,977	What actually needs to happen for things to start recovering? I admit I don't really understand everything that has been going on or why things have gone this way even though I have been trying to. __________________ The look on your face when a toddler rips out your heart and shows it to you? Priceless.... For everything else, there's FWOOSH!

10-10-2008, 14:22	#17
Garp Preparing more tumbleweed Join Date: Jun 2006 Location: Hawaii Posts: 6,038	Mark Shuttleworth has an interesting view on this one: http://www.markshuttleworth.com/archives/220 __________________ Mal: Define "interesting"? Wash: "Oh, God, oh, God, we're all gonna die"?

10-10-2008, 14:40	#18
Matblack Baby Bore Join Date: Jun 2006 Location: Svalbard Posts: 9,770	If you have cash and you're reasonably secure in your job there will be a few bargains to be had over the next few months, if you are looking to make some ready cash then I'd be thinking about drip feeding cash into the markets sooner rather than later. It will go back up its just a matter of time. MB __________________ "we had roots that grew towards each other underground, and when all the pretty blossom had fallen from our branches we found that we were one tree and not two"

08-10-2008, 18:19	#12
Mark Screaming Orgasm Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: Newbury Posts: 15,194	I think it's now a choice between a prolonged recession and depression. You can be sure we'll be paying for this mess for a decade or two. PS - WTF is a 'dead cat bounce'?

10-10-2008, 13:31	#14
Mark Screaming Orgasm Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: Newbury Posts: 15,194	Thanks. They used the term on 'This Week' last night, and I knew what they were talking about. I haven't heard significant use of the word 'crash' yet, but I don't think there's any other word that portrays the events accurately. FTSE 100 has lost 1000 points this week and counting. Looking at the last two notable crashes, it took 20+ years to recover from 1929 and 2 to recover from 1987. Wonder how long it'll be this time.

10-10-2008, 13:58	#16
Mark Screaming Orgasm Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: Newbury Posts: 15,194	To start recovering, we first need to find the bottom. Right now we're still on the way down, and it could still be a long way down from here. I'd anticipate a minimum of 6-12 months before anyone even thinks about recovery. There's going to be a retail bust-up after Christmas as a lot of retailers (big and small alike) are trading on the edge, and it's looking unlikely there will be much of a Christmas splurge. This could even include big names such as Woolworths, HMV and Currys. We also need the impact of all the recent collapses (and bail-outs) to work their way through the system.

10-10-2008, 16:00	#19
Mark Screaming Orgasm Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: Newbury Posts: 15,194	Them dead cats are back at it again. 8% down this morning, 5% a few hours ago, 7% now.